To see your true tendency to jump to scary conclusions, it can help to calculate your Validity Quotient (Moses and Barlow 2006). To calculate your Validity Quotient, think back over the last five years (or one or two years), estimate the total number of times you predicted a particular scary conclusion (for example, My boss will fire me tomorrow or This physical symptom means I have a terrible illness), and estimate the total number of times this scary conclusion came true.

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